In Indian cricket, few players have commanded the kind of attention and emotional investment that Jasprit Bumrah now does in Test cricket. His presence is so pivotal that it echoes the era of Sachin Tendulkar, when the TV screens would literally switch off after his dismissal. For the current Indian Test team, it often feels like it’s “Bumrah or bust,” a stark reality as they face an earlier-than-expected transition.
The Bumrah Dependence: A Worrying Pattern
We saw this stark dependence firsthand during the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia in 2024-25. For much of that grueling five-Test series, it felt like Bumrah was almost single-handedly battling the Aussies. When he eventually broke down in the final Test, India’s hopes of salvaging the series seemed to vanish with him.
Now, fast forward to June, and a familiar, unsettling feeling is creeping into the minds of Indian cricket fans. Bumrah is set to miss the second Test of the Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy against England.1 Despite India piling up over 800 runs in the first Test at Leeds—and Bumrah even taking a five-wicket haul—India still lost.2 With a “Bazballing” England squad looming large in Birmingham, facing them without their primary bowling spearhead is, to put it mildly, unnerving.
Workload Management: Protecting the Kohinoor
Reports suggest that Bumrah, who was initially slated to play only three of the five Tests, will sit out the Edgbaston clash, even with a week’s break between games.3 This decision speaks volumes about India’s commitment to “protecting their Kohinoor”. It’s all about meticulous workload management for arguably the world’s best fast bowler, especially given his history of injuries. Since his debut, he’s bowled 1,482 overs—by far the most by any Indian bowler in that period.
On Friday, during India’s four-hour training session at Edgbaston, Bumrah was present but notably did not bowl. While there’s no official confirmation of his absence, all signs point to it, with the team clearly shifting focus to other seamers in preparation for the Birmingham battle.
Echoes of the Past: Coping Without Key Players
Not since the iconic Border-Gavaskar series of 2021 has one player’s availability so thoroughly overshadowed all other narratives. Back then, the burning question was how India would manage without Virat Kohli, who was available for only one of five Tests. Now, the challenge is whether they can survive two Tests without Bumrah, especially after the gut-wrenching loss in the series opener.
This brings us to the core question: Can India truly win an overseas Test without Jasprit Bumrah? While many cricket romantics might quickly dismiss the idea, pointing to the glaring overdependence exposed at Headingley, let’s delve into the numbers before India takes the field at Edgbaston.
Tactical Blunder? Publicizing Bumrah’s Schedule
Before we dissect the statistics, a quick, crucial point: Did India make a strategic error by openly declaring that Bumrah would play only three of the five Tests? Even if this was a pre-planned strategy, why hand England such a significant tactical advantage on a silver platter? Compounding the issue is the absence of Mohammed Shami, while Mohammed Siraj appears out of rhythm.4 The rest of the pace attack lacks any prior Test experience bowling in English conditions.
India’s Pace Attack Without Bumrah: A Closer Look
Let’s examine India’s frontline pacers without Bumrah:
- Mohammed Siraj – 37 Tests5
- Akash Deep – 7 Tests6
- Prasidh Krishna – 4 Tests7
- Arshdeep Singh – Yet to debut
Remove Bumrah from this equation, and the collective experience of this young seam group is effectively halved. Siraj, despite being the de facto senior, has had inconsistent form, particularly in red-ball cricket. Akash Deep, while promising, has primarily played at home.8 Prasidh was expensive in Leeds, and Arshdeep is still awaiting his Test debut.9 It certainly makes for grim reading.
Bumrah’s Overseas Impact: The Numbers Don’t Lie
Bumrah’s impact, especially overseas, has been monumental since his red-ball debut in 2018.10 During this period, India has played 26 Tests without him, winning 18 of them. However, when you narrow the focus to foreign soil, those numbers dip. And if you zoom in further on SENA countries (South Africa, England, New Zealand, Australia), the struggle becomes even more apparent.
Since Bumrah’s debut, India’s overseas victories without him have been limited to Bangladesh (2022), the West Indies (thanks largely to R Ashwin’s 12-wicket haul on a turning Dominica track in 2023), and the miraculous Gabba win in 2021.11 The data clearly indicates: when Bumrah plays, India wins more.
Consider this staggering fact: before Bumrah’s arrival, India had won only 18 of their 113 overseas Tests in SENA countries. Post his debut, that win percentage has doubled! This is incredibly telling, isn’t it?
Learning from Brisbane 2021: A Blueprint for Hope?
India will undoubtedly look to the Brisbane 2021 triumph for inspiration. That epic series finale saw them field a pace attack literally held together by sheer will and belief. There was no Bumrah, no Ashwin. A two-Test old Siraj led the charge. Navdeep Saini was playing only his second Test, and T Natarajan, who had flown in as a net bowler, was handed his debut.12 And yet, they still managed to take 20 wickets, riding on the back of Sydney’s resilience into Brisbane’s glorious victory under Ajinkya Rahane’s calm leadership.13
However, Birmingham 2024 is no Brisbane 2021. England, under Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum, isn’t playing traditional Test cricket. They’ve made chasing down totals of 350+ seem routine. And let’s not forget, it was at this very ground in 2022 that England famously chased down 379—against a Bumrah-led India!
Strategic Choices: Can India Adapt?
If Bumrah is indeed ruled out, you can be sure England will gleefully prepare a pitch with even the barest hint of grass, backing their aggressive batting to pile pressure on India’s less experienced pace attack. Is it a foregone conclusion then?
Not necessarily, if India makes the right tactical choices. In Leeds, India opted for Shardul Thakur as the fifth bowler alongside Ravindra Jadeja, an attacking move that saw them pick a bowling all-rounder over Nitish Kumar Reddy. However, the selection of Prasidh Krishna—a hit-the-deck bowler—over a natural swing option might have backfired in the English conditions.
In Bumrah’s absence, India could consider options like Akash Deep or Arshdeep Singh, both of whom are more adept at swinging the red Duke ball.14 Alternatively, they might even take a bold gamble and bring in Kuldeep Yadav as a second spinner.
The Spin Option in England: Risky, But Not Unheard Of
Two spinners in England? It sounds risky, but it’s far from outrageous. Cricketing greats like Sunil Gavaskar and Sourav Ganguly have long advocated for picking your five best bowlers, rather than just “horses for courses.” Consider this: Ashwin himself took seven wickets at Edgbaston in 2018 during a narrow defeat.15 And long before him, the legendary Shane Warne transformed Edgbaston pitches into theatres of slow, spinning torment.16 Even Nathan Lyon boasts 20 wickets in just three Tests here.
Could India dare to play both Jadeja and Kuldeep in Birmingham?
Optimism Amidst Challenges
And if Bumrah is indeed to miss two Tests in this series, what are the ideal venues for his rest? Examining the historical balance of spin versus pace at the four remaining grounds—Edgbaston, Lord’s, Old Trafford, and The Oval—might provide some insights. Purely by numbers, Edgbaston and The Oval might appear to be the best bets for his rest. But even with the data, the overall picture for India looks challenging.
Still, there’s room for optimism. As Gautam Gambhir wisely stated before the series: “I have said it before during the Champions Trophy [which Bumrah missed and India won] as well—it will give someone the opportunity to put his hand up. We have enough talent there. I know he is quality, but we’ve got quality beyond him too.”
India will need immense belief, a few bold calls, and perhaps a touch of magic to overcome this hurdle. Because while Jasprit Bumrah might not walk out at Edgbaston, the Indian team still must.
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