Italy, four-time world champions, are again at risk of missing football’s biggest stage as they head into the final round of 2026 World Cup qualifying. After failing to reach the 2018 and 2022 editions, the Azzurri are second in their group, three points behind leaders Norway, who visit Milan on Sunday.
To qualify automatically, Italy must win by nine goals because Norway hold a huge advantage on goal difference. A far more realistic outcome is another trip to the play-offs—an arena that has brought deep disappointment in recent years.
Play-off ghosts return
Italy’s absence from Russia 2018 followed a painful defeat to Sweden, and their failure to qualify for Qatar 2022 came after a stunning 1-0 loss at home to North Macedonia. The fear of another collapse looms large despite the expansion of the 2026 tournament to 48 teams.
Italian football journalist James Horncastle said missing out again would be “beyond apocalyptic”, reflecting the national anxiety after years of underachievement.
Slow start piles on pressure
Italy haven’t been at a World Cup since 2014. Their current troubles began with a heavy 3-0 loss to Norway in their opening qualifier, featuring a goal from Erling Haaland. The defeat led to manager Luciano Spalletti announcing his own departure before he briefly returned to oversee the next match.
From there, Italy were chasing a flawless Norway side who won their first seven matches, scoring freely and leaving Italy with no margin for error.
That led to the appointment of Gennaro Gattuso—an iconic former midfielder but a manager whose recent spells at Valencia, Marseille and Fiorentina were short and turbulent. Many doubted whether he was the right figure to stabilise a struggling national side.
Gattuso brings goals—and risk
Gattuso has delivered immediate entertainment, with Italy scoring 18 times in his first five games. Big wins over Estonia and Israel showed attacking freedom, while a late 2-0 victory over Moldova kept their slim hopes of topping the group alive.
His emotional, combative style has clearly energised the players. “He has screamed at them and reminded them what the shirt means,” said journalist Mina Rzouki. “The players admire him and are playing for him.”
However, questions remain about the team’s structure. Italy have conceded too many chances, particularly against teams they should beat comfortably. Rzouki warned that the side can appear “reckless and tactically naive”, relying on outscoring opponents rather than controlling games.
Forward Mateo Retegui has been a bright spot, scoring five goals under Gattuso, but the balance between attack and defence remains fragile.
Play-off path ahead
If, as expected, Italy finish second, they must navigate two one-leg play-off ties to reach the finals. With memories of past collapses fresh and pressure rising, Italy must find discipline quickly.
Despite the risks and the chaos, Italy still have a path to North America—if they can avoid another nightmare when it matters most.
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