The 2026 US Open has barely begun, but the debate over who will lift the women’s singles trophy is already heating up.
American stars Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe have offered different predictions for the women’s champion, underlining just how open the WTA draw looks this year.The defending champion and world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka remains one of the leading contenders, but recent results have given players such as Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula genuine reasons to believe they can take the crown.
Shelton and Tiafoe see the race differently
Shelton and Tiafoe, two of the leading figures in the latest generation of American men’s tennis, do not agree on who has the strongest chance of winning the women’s title.
Their contrasting choices reflect the uncertainty surrounding this year’s tournament. Sabalenka enters New York chasing a historic third consecutive US Open championship, while several of her biggest rivals arrive with strong recent form.
Gauff, in particular, has generated considerable momentum after winning the Cincinnati Open immediately before the US Open. She defeated fellow American Jessica Pegula 6-2, 6-4 in the Cincinnati final, giving her an important confidence boost on hard courts.
Sabalenka chasing history
Sabalenka enters the tournament with considerably more than another Grand Slam title at stake.
The Belarusian is attempting to become the first woman since Serena Williams from 2012 to 2014 to win the US Open three years in succession. She has already captured the New York title in 2024 and 2025.
However, her recent form has made the women’s competition much harder to predict. Sabalenka suffered an early exit in Cincinnati and has not looked as dominant as she did during her strongest periods this season.
That has opened the door for her challengers.
Gauff arrives with momentum
Among the strongest alternatives is Gauff, the 2023 US Open champion.
The 22-year-old American heads back to New York after her Cincinnati triumph and has once again become one of the major talking points surrounding the tournament.
Her US Open record also provides plenty of encouragement. Gauff has previously shown that she can handle the pressure of playing in front of the home crowd, having won the title in 2023.
Her combination of speed, defensive ability and improved confidence on hard courts makes her one of the players capable of disrupting Sabalenka’s bid for a three-peat.
The numbers behind the contenders
Aryna Sabalenka: Two-time defending US Open champion and world No. 1.
Coco Gauff: 2023 US Open champion; won Cincinnati in 2026.
Iga Swiatek: Former US Open champion and one of the leading contenders.
Jessica Pegula: Reached the US Open final in 2024 and remains a major hard-court threat.
Sabalenka’s target: Three consecutive US Open titles.
2026 US Open women’s singles winner’s prize: $5.5 million.
Total 2026 US Open prize purse: $108 million.
Why the prediction matters
The Shelton-Tiafoe disagreement is more than just a light-hearted prediction between two American players.
It highlights the fascinating uncertainty surrounding the women’s tournament. Sabalenka has the ranking, experience and recent US Open success, while Gauff arrives with fresh momentum. Swiatek, Pegula and several other contenders also have the ability to put together a championship run.
Current prediction markets also underline the competitiveness of the field, with Sabalenka leading but Gauff and Swiatek close behind.
For Shelton and Tiafoe, the answer is simple: they have seen enough from the women’s field to make different calls.
Now New York gets to decide which prediction looks smarter.
With two weeks of hard-court tennis still ahead, the women’s US Open title race could become one of the most intriguing battles of the tournament.
Key Takeaway
The disagreement between Shelton and Tiafoe adds another interesting subplot to an already unpredictable US Open. Sabalenka is chasing history, Gauff is carrying strong Cincinnati form, and a group of elite challengers are waiting for their opportunity.
The prediction game is over.
The real test begins on court.
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