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Can the Underdog 49ers Upset the Seahawks at Lumen Field?

Sohini Mukherjee by Sohini Mukherjee
January 17, 2026
in NFL
Can the Underdog 49ers Upset the Seahawks at Lumen Field?

Image Courtesy -@bluecrewviking /X

As the NFL playoffs heat up, an intense NFC Divisional Round clash is set for Saturday night when the San Francisco 49ers travel north to take on the No. 1-seed Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Seattle.

This isn’t just another playoff game — it’s the third meeting this season between long-time NFC West rivals, with a berth in the NFC Championship Game on the line.

Seahawks Favored, But 49ers Not Quietly Packing Bags

Seattle enters as a 7-point favorite, riding a powerful defense that allowed just 17.2 points per game this season — the best in the NFL.

Head coach Mike Macdonald, optimistic about QB Sam Darnold’s status after a minor oblique issue, said earlier this week, “We expect Sam to play and be effective,” a necessary boost for the Seahawks’ title hopes.

Meanwhile, Seattle named this weekend’s game captains — including standout WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and defensive ace Devon Witherspoon — to lead the charge at home.

Injury Clouds Over the Niners

San Francisco will be without All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner due to injury, a huge blow to their defense. Coach Kyle Shanahan nevertheless expressed confidence about Warner’s long-term return, even though he “won’t play this game.”

Star tight end George Kittle is also out for the year after Achilles surgery, compounding San Francisco’s offensive challenges, though playmakers like Christian McCaffrey aim to pick up the slack.

What the Experts Are Saying

Analysts widely lean toward Seattle advancing, with several projections picking the Seahawks to win by a touchdown or more:

Bill Bender (Sporting News): “Seahawks 24, 49ers 20,” highlighting Seattle’s balanced offensive attack.

Pete Prisco (CBS Sports): also favors Seattle, noting the 49ers’ injuries.

Many models echo this sentiment, though a handful of voices still see San Francisco pushing for an upset if they stay competitive.

Keys to the Game

🔹 Seattle’s defense must continue dominating, especially against the run.

🔹 McCaffrey’s versatility could be the X-factor for the Niners’ offense if they hope to cause an upset.

🔹 Turnovers and special teams could decide an otherwise tight game between two well-matched rivals on paper.

Final Word

This divisional showdown feels like a classic playoff chess match. Seattle’s stout defense and home crowd give them the edge, but San Francisco’s heart — plus a dangerous offensive weapon in McCaffrey — ensures nothing will be easy.

Prediction buzz: Seahawks likely to win and advance, but the 49ers could make it a dramatic game to remember.

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Sohini Mukherjee

Sohini Mukherjee

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